This video is based on my article Hot climate models and unrealistic assumptions are undermining public trust in climate action.
Climate models and their associated Representative Concentration Pathways (scenarios) are essential tools. We need them, but like any tool, they have limitations.
Some recent models, called CMIP 6, have become known as “hot models”. This is because they likely overstated warming because of specific technical issues, predominantly relating to the complexity of calculating cloud feedbacks. And RCP 8.5, the extra pathway, doesn't look like a plausible business as usual scenario, even if it has some value for exploring extreme risks.
Overall, we need to balance genuine concern about climate change with a realistic assessment of the tools and scenarios used to investigate it. This isn't climate denialism. It's just prudent science and should ideally lead to better, more robust policy. Ultimately it could even enhance the credibility and effectiveness of how we communicate about climate change.
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Video intro generated using Hailu AI:
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Video and associated assets generated using CapCut:
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